TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Nijmegen and Sittard, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Nijmegen vs Sittard Eredivisie soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered, each tied to specific goal-margin thresholds: Nijmegen winning by more than 2.5 goals, Nijmegen winning by more than 1.5 goals, Sittard winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Sittard winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty outcomes. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, reflecting differing sources of information and biases. Sportsbooks typically set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced an outcome, they can take the opposite position, driving the prediction market odds in a different direction. This dynamic can lead to prediction markets being more accurate than traditional odds, particularly when incorporating information not readily available to bookmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price can change rapidly as new information becomes available or as traders adjust their beliefs about the game's likely result, creating opportunities for informed traders.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Nijmegen vs Sittard match, including any potential adjustments for extra time or penalty shootouts, as determined by the governing sports league. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will receive nothing. The final result will be publicly available on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Nijmegen or Sittard would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news related to team morale or off-field issues could also shift the market. Monitoring sports news and social media for updates on these factors can provide valuable insights into potential market movements.