TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Nicaragua vs. Dominican Republic
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Nicaragua vs. Dominican Republic?

Volume:
$2,472,589

Dominican Republic

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:30 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Dominican Republic

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$915,741
N/A
N/A
$415,673
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Dominican Republic

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41,379
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Nicaragua

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$872,432
N/A
N/A
$429,177
Settled
No
polymarket

Nicaragua

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$581,377
N/A
N/A
$296,463
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Nicaragua vs. Dominican Republic)

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether the Dominican Republic will win their soccer match against Nicaragua on October 4, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of a Dominican Republic win is 100.0%, aggregating views from Kalshi and Polymarket. The result will be determined based on the official outcome reported by https://www.concacaf.com/. With markets also available for a Nicaragua win (0.1%) and a draw, keep an eye on team rosters announced closer to October 4, 2026, as these could signal potential shifts in expected performance.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly resolves canceled games to 'No' while Kalshi lacks this specification, creating ambiguity.Hero tip: Consider the possibility of game cancellation and its impact on Polymarket's 'No' outcome. Kalshi's market may remain open or resolve based on other factors if the game is canceled.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'No' if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. Uses official statistics, then Flashscore/Sofascore/consensus if official data is unavailable. Resolution within 24 hours or 50/50 split.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit handling of cancellations is provided, suggesting resolution hinges on the game being played.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Concacaf Nations League game, scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026 between Nicaragua and Dominican Republic.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the result of the Nicaragua vs Dominican Republic professional Concacaf Nations League soccer game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. A win for Nicaragua resolves the 'Nicaragua' market to Yes; a win for the Dominican Republic resolves the 'Dominican Republic' market to Yes; a tie resolves the 'Tie' market to Yes. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count towards resolution. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled beyond 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Nicaragua vs. Dominican Republic game. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong likelihood of a draw, with approximately 96 percent probability assigned to that outcome. Total volume across both platforms is $2,472,589, with $2,465,784 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive view of market sentiment and provides a unique insight into the potential result, distinct from traditional betting odds. The dashboard tracks price movements and volume to show where the crowd believes the most likely result lies.

Prediction market odds, such as those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set odds based on internal models and aim to profit from imbalances in betting. In contrast, prediction markets rely on the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This market reflects the aggregated beliefs of these participants, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. The difference can also stem from varying levels of market liquidity and the inclusion of information not readily available to sportsbooks.