TOTAL VOLUME:

$117.1b

24H VOL:

$118,123,754

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,196,188,793

339,583

Markets across

34,083

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,401

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Science and Technology
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
Science and Technology
predict
polymarket
kalshi

Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?

Total volume:
$501,194
Volume 24h:
$63,835
22%
Liquidity:
$129,492
6%
Open interest:
$48,507
0.87%

October 31

all

3 markets

Polymarket

95.7%

Predict

95%

Kalshi

97%

consensus

95.9%

+4.2%

spread

95-97%

(2pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

2
2

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Aug 28

Vol.

$12.2k

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Next Mythos-Class Model released by October 31, 2026?

94%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 95.7¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 28% 64 days to resolution
predict

Trade on Predict

At 95¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 76% 32 days to resolution
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 18% 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks whether Anthropic will release the next Mythos-class model by various specified dates in 2026. A Mythos-class model is defined as any model whose official name includes 'Mythos' or is officially described as a 'Mythos-class' model by Anthropic. The model must be publicly accessible, not limited to closed beta or private access.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms agree that a new Mythos-class model must be publicly released by the specified date to resolve to 'Yes', with consistent definitions of model qualification and public accessibility requirementsPrimary resolution logic: Official Anthropic announcements, supported by credible reporting consensus

Core resolution logic:

  • Any model with 'Mythos' in the official name or officially described as a 'Mythos-class' model qualifies, excluding Claude Fable 5
  • Model must be publicly accessible via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups; closed beta or private access does not qualify
  • Release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public
  • Markets resolve to 'Yes' only if the qualifying model is released on or before the listed date

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Labeling errors: If a model is labeled as a Mythos-class model on the website but is not actually accessible to the general public, it does not qualify
  • Placeholder text: Version names displayed on the website that are not corresponding to an actually accessible model do not qualify
Timing: Markets will resolve shortly after the specified date, based on verification of the release criteria from official Anthropic sources and credible reportingOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Show more

Polymarket

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

A Mythos-class model release by Anthropic resolves this event to Yes, provided the model is publicly available (excluding closed beta access, though premium subscription tiers are permitted) and released before the applicable deadline. The event contains multiple resolution dates: August 1, September 1, October 1, and November 1, 2026. Any new model branded under the Mythos or Fable tier qualifies, with the exception of Claude Fable 5, which was released on June 9, 2026 and is explicitly excluded from consideration. The market resolves affirmatively upon the first qualifying release meeting these criteria before any of the specified deadlines.

Predict

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Mythos-Class model release market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time odds, trading volume, and consensus across platforms. It tracks how traders on different prediction markets price the likelihood of various entities launching the next Mythos-Class model. With a total volume of $340,021 and 24-hour volume of $17,391, it offers a live snapshot of market sentiment and activity for this specific technology event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a strong expectation for a particular outcome, often aligning closely with analyst forecasts for major tech releases. Analysts may weigh factors like company roadmaps, patent filings, and executive statements. Where this market differs is in its real-time price adjustment — trader sentiment can shift rapidly with new rumors or demo leaks, making the market odds sometimes more aggressive or more cautious than traditional forecasts.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user base, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more tech-focused traders who react quickly to development news, while the other could reflect broader betting patterns. The gap between 94.4% on Polymarket and 93.0% on Kalshi often shows how each community interprets the latest information about product timelines.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on official announcements, product launches, or documented evidence showing which entity released the next Mythos-Class model. Traders should watch for press releases, keynote events, and verified product demonstrations from the companies involved.

Several signals could shift odds before this market settles. Key events include developer conference keynotes, patent publications, hiring announcements for AI teams, and leaked prototypes or beta tests. Any statement from company leaders about product timelines or priorities may also cause rapid price changes. Traders will monitor tech news outlets and social media for early hints about who might accelerate or delay their release plans.