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779,522

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13,788

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843

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5

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Science and Technology
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
Science and Technology
polymarket
kalshi

Next Mythos-Class Model released by…? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$60,136
Volume 24h:
$8,424
30%
Liquidity:
$28,993
62%
Open interest:
$14,248
11%
PredictionHero
Before Nov 1, 2026 85%
kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2026 76%
kalshi
September 30 75%
polymarket
Jun 10Jun 11Jun 13Jun 14Jun 16Jun 17Jun 25Jun 27Jun 28Jun 30Jul 1Jul 2Jul 3Jul 4Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Jul 10406080100

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026?

85%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

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kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 85¢ buys you 118 shares | Odds: 85% Total Payout: $118 | Net Profit: $18 Multiplier: 1.18x | ROI: 18% | APY: 68% 114 days to resolution
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Description

This event group tracks whether Anthropic will release a new Mythos-class model (excluding Claude Fable 5, released June 9, 2026) by various dates in 2026. Markets span multiple resolution deadlines across Polymarket and Kalshi, testing whether Anthropic's next-generation model tier becomes publicly available within specified windows.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms align on the core requirement: a new Mythos or Fable-branded model must be released and made publicly accessible (not private/closed beta) by the deadline, with official Anthropic announcement as the primary source.Primary resolution logic: Official Anthropic website, press releases, and public model availability; credible consensus reporting used as secondary source if official channels are ambiguous.

Core resolution logic:

  • Model must be officially branded by Anthropic as Mythos-class, Mythos-tier, or Fable-tier (e.g., Claude Fable 6, Claude Mythos X, or similar naming convention).
  • Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) is explicitly excluded; only subsequent Mythos/Fable releases qualify.
  • Public accessibility is mandatory: open beta, open rolling waitlist signups, or general public release all qualify; closed beta, private access, or limited internal testing do not.
  • Model must be labeled with official version name on Anthropic's website or official channels; placeholder text or labeling errors do not qualify.
  • Release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic before the deadline (ET) for that specific market.
  • Resolution occurs on the deadline date specified in each market (July 31, Aug 31, Sep 30, or Oct 31, 2026).

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Labeling or Placeholder Errors: If a model appears on Anthropic's website with a Mythos/Fable label but is later confirmed to be placeholder text or mislabeled, it does not qualify. The model must be actually accessible to the general public under the stated name.
  • Closed Beta or Private Access: A Mythos/Fable model released only to closed beta testers, private users, or limited internal groups does not trigger Yes resolution. Public accessibility is a hard requirement.
  • Announcement Without Availability: If Anthropic announces a Mythos/Fable model but does not make it publicly accessible by the deadline, the market resolves No. Announcement alone is insufficient.
  • Multiple Releases: If multiple new Mythos/Fable models are released before a deadline, the market resolves Yes (the condition is met). The market does not require exactly one release.
  • Rebranding or Retroactive Classification: If Anthropic retroactively reclassifies an existing model as Mythos-tier after the deadline, it does not qualify for that deadline's market. The release date and public availability date are the determinants.
Timing: Resolution occurs at the end of each specified deadline date (July 31, Aug 31, Sep 30, or Oct 31, 2026, all ET). Markets resolve independently based on whether a qualifying release occurred by that date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

A Mythos-class model release by Anthropic resolves this event to Yes, provided the model is publicly available (excluding closed beta access, though premium subscription tiers are permitted) and released before the applicable deadline. The event contains multiple resolution dates: August 1, September 1, October 1, and November 1, 2026. Any new model branded under the Mythos or Fable tier qualifies, with the exception of Claude Fable 5, which was released on June 9, 2026 and is explicitly excluded from consideration. The market resolves affirmatively upon the first qualifying release meeting these criteria before any of the specified deadlines.

Frequently asked questions

The Mythos-class AI model release market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking which organization will deploy the next model in this advanced tier. Collectively, these platforms show a volume of $60,136 in total interest. The dashboard surfaces real-time odds from both venues, revealing where the prediction community expects Anthropic or a competitor to make the next major release. By monitoring cross-platform consensus, traders gain insight into which labs the market favors and how conviction shifts as new developments emerge.

Prediction market prices reflect live trader conviction rather than published analyst reports, often moving faster when new research or product announcements surface. Markets aggregate dispersed information and financial incentives, sometimes diverging from traditional forecasts when insiders or early observers trade ahead of public knowledge. Comparing this market's odds to third-party AI timelines and capability roadmaps can reveal where consensus differs. Analysts may emphasize capability milestones, while traders price in commercial release timing, regulatory delays, and competitive dynamics—creating natural gaps between the two signals.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, regulatory jurisdictions, and contract designs, leading to price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's liquidity depth, fee structure, and user demographics influence how quickly new information is priced in. Polymarket currently shows 75.0% odds on its top outcome, while Kalshi reflects 85.0%, a spread of 10.0 percentage points. Arbitrage traders can exploit these gaps, though transaction costs and contract settlement timing differences often keep spreads from fully closing.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning outcome depends on which organization officially announces and releases the next Mythos-class model before the deadline. Traders should monitor press releases, company announcements, and major AI news outlets for the definitive release date and responsible party. Early or ambiguous announcements may trigger clarification periods before final settlement.

Major catalysts include official product roadmap announcements, earnings calls, research paper releases, and competitive model launches from Anthropic or rival labs. Regulatory developments—such as AI safety requirements or export restrictions—could accelerate or delay timelines. Funding announcements, executive departures, or technical breakthroughs in scaling or safety also shift trader expectations. Real-time monitoring of company blogs, conference presentations, and industry news will help traders anticipate price moves before they fully materialize in this market.

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