TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 1:54 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Newcastle and Macarthur in the Australia A League. Bettors can speculate on whether Newcastle will win, Macarthur will win, or the game will end in a tie within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The resolution depends solely on the result of the match as it concludes in regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Newcastle vs Macarthur professional Australia A League soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for either Newcastle or Macarthur occurs only if that team secures a victory during regular time. If the match ends level after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve at a fair price, reflecting the likelihood of each outcome given the changed circumstances. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect the resolution, as only results within 90 minutes plus stoppage time count.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to reflect public perception and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of informed traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing levels of information or varying interpretations of the same data. If you find a significant difference between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, it might indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome in the Newcastle vs Macarthur match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time estimate of expectations for the Newcastle vs Macarthur match. The platform uses a decentralized mechanism, allowing participants to directly influence the odds based on their own analysis and insights.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Newcastle vs Macarthur match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning contract and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about any potential factors that could affect the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could influence the perceived probabilities. Major shifts in public opinion, reflected in updated sportsbook odds or expert analysis, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, significant bets placed by informed traders on Kalshi could trigger price movements as others react to their actions. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market leading up to the Newcastle vs Macarthur match.