TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Everton wins by more than 1.5 goals
- Kalshi
Everton wins by more than 1.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 2, 2026
Time left: 02h:49m:17s
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This event tracks the outcome of an English Premier League soccer match between Newcastle and Everton, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specified number of goals. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event encompasses four distinct outcome scenarios based on the goal differential between Newcastle and Everton in their scheduled match on November 2, 2026. Each scenario defines a specific threshold by which the winning team must triumph for the market to resolve positively. If Newcastle wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the corresponding markets resolve to Yes. Similarly, if Everton wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, their respective markets also resolve to Yes. All resolutions are based exclusively on the official match result after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The governing body’s official score is the sole determinant, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal association with the league or its trademarks.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly disagrees with the sportsbook's initial assessment. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final spread of the Newcastle vs Everton match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism that attempts to accurately represent the probability of different outcomes. The current price indicates what traders collectively believe the spread will be.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Newcastle vs Everton match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by official sources covering the game, and that result will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the event has concluded and the outcome is officially verified.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Newcastle or Everton squads would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news about player availability or significant shifts in public perception regarding the teams’ chances could also lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market.