TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between New York RB and San Diego FC, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled based on whether the winning team achieves specific goal-differential thresholds.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either New York RB or San Diego FC wins the match originally scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If New York RB wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. If New York RB wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not more than 2.5), that specific market resolves to Yes. If San Diego FC wins by more than 1.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. If San Diego FC wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. All markets are independent and resolved solely based on the exact margin of victory as defined in each primary rule. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market is driven purely by participants’ beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams’ strengths. If you find a significant difference between the odds on Kalshi and those offered by sportsbooks, it might indicate an opportunity for value betting, depending on your own assessment of the New York RB vs San Diego FC match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where buyers and sellers set the prices for contracts representing different outcomes. Traders are essentially betting on the probability of each outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability; a higher price suggests a greater perceived chance of that outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the likely spread in the New York RB vs San Diego FC match. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the New York RB vs San Diego FC match, as determined by official game statistics. Specifically, the market will settle based on whether New York RB wins by more than 1.5 goals, or if San Diego FC covers the spread. The final result will be sourced from official sports data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, suspensions, or changes in team lineups for either New York RB or San Diego FC would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected weather conditions or changes in coaching strategies could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could lead to increased trading volume and price adjustments in this market. Keep an eye on these factors as they unfold to understand potential shifts in the perceived probabilities.