TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 7:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance gap between New York RB and Miami in their upcoming MLS soccer match. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, reflecting how decisively one side dominates the other. The outcomes depend solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential between New York RB and Miami in their professional MLS soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if New York RB wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or if Miami wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The resolution excludes extra time and penalty phases, focusing only on the regular match duration. All markets operate independently of any official league affiliations, with Kalshi clarifying it holds no connection to the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. Examining these differences can be insightful, as both sources attempt to forecast the same outcome, but through different methodologies. Keep in mind that prediction markets allow you to trade your position up until resolution.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the New York RB vs Miami match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their forecasts are correct. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread determined by official sources for the New York RB vs Miami match. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Major announcements relating to the teams' strategies or key personnel are likely to cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate a shift in sentiment and move the market accordingly. Monitoring these signals can help you understand the evolving probabilities within this market.