TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks rushing performance thresholds for specific players in an upcoming football game between New York J and New England. The outcomes depend on whether designated players achieve various yardage milestones during the full match, including overtime periods.
All markets are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime—including overtime—the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player meets the specified rushing yardage threshold. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all yardage totals include overtime statistics.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. However, as the event approaches, this market tends to converge with sportsbook odds, as more information becomes available and traders refine their predictions. Keep in mind that prediction markets allow you to buy and sell your predictions up until the resolution date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different rushing yardage ranges. The current price reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The more contracts bought for a particular outcome, the higher the price, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations for the game’s rushing yardage total.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage statistics from the New York J vs New England game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final, official rushing yardage total will be used to determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the settlement details on Kalshi shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. It’s important to monitor the game and official sources to understand the final result and how it impacts the market.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a significant catalyst, as would any changes to the expected weather conditions for the game. News regarding offensive line changes or defensive strategies could also shift expectations. Unexpected news about the quarterback’s health or a change in coaching decisions could also impact the perceived rushing attack effectiveness. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about team news will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.