TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between New York and New England. Participants bet on how many rushing yards a designated player will gain during the match, with payouts scaling based on actual yardage achieved. The structure allows for nuanced predictions about individual player contributions rather than just the game's outcome.
Contracts pay out based on the exact number of rushing yards recorded by the specified player during the designated NFL game. Each Yes contract earns $0.0025 per rushing yard accumulated, capped at $1.00 for up to 400 yards. The No contract pays the remainder, ensuring the total payout per contract equals $1.00 regardless of outcome. Payouts scale proportionally with yardage—for instance, 80 yards yields a Yes payout of $0.20 and a No payout of $0.80, while zero yards results in a full $1.00 No payout. This scalar structure allows precise betting on individual performance metrics within a fixed financial framework.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and insights. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Polls and analysts often predict outcomes, but this market allows for a more dynamic and real-time assessment of probabilities as traders react to news and developments leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain yardage range, the price increases, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that aims to accurately forecast the final rushing yard total for the game. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to price discovery and a constantly updated probability distribution.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard statistics from the New York J vs New England game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard total, as reported by official sources, will determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would likely cause substantial price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if a storm is predicted, could also impact the expected game plan and rushing yard totals. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategies could also play a role. Finally, any late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to traders adjusting their positions and moving the market prices.