TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game, where payouts vary based on the number of rushing yards each player achieves. Contracts reward higher yardage with increasing returns, creating a dynamic link between player performance and financial outcome.
The event features two parallel markets resolving based on rushing yardage achieved by designated players in the same football game. Each market operates as a scalar contract where Yes payouts scale non-linearly with every 10-yard increment up to 200 yards, following a cubic function designed to accelerate returns at higher yardage tiers. Payouts cap at $1.00 for Yes contracts, while No contracts receive the remainder of a $1.00 stake after subtracting the Yes payout, ensuring total returns sum to $1.00 per contract pair regardless of outcome. Negative yardage results assign zero value to Yes contracts. Both markets use identical payout structures and formulas, differing only in the athlete whose statistics determine resolution.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists, it might suggest that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and differences can arise due to varying information or perspectives.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage totals from the New York J vs New England game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yardage total will be sourced from official game statistics and used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders will be able to see the final result and any payouts on Kalshi shortly after the game concludes and the data is verified.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team’s offense, particularly the running backs or offensive line, would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, specifically conditions that could favor a run-heavy or pass-heavy game plan, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team matchups could lead to shifts in expectations and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.