TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming football game between New York J and New England. The outcome depends on whether designated players meet or exceed predefined reception thresholds during the full game, including any overtime periods.
All markets are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price unless the player meets the reception threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all reception counts include overtime plays. The event settles based on official game statistics.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks may set lines to attract action on both sides, while this market aims for a more accurate probability assessment based on traders' collective knowledge. However, discrepancies can occur due to differing information access or analytical approaches. It's common to see this market and sportsbook odds converge closer to the event date as more information becomes available and opinions solidify.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, indicates the volume of contracts available at various price points, offering insight into potential price movements and liquidity.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals from the New York J vs New England game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be the basis for determining the winning contract. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective, ensuring that the market accurately reflects the actual event results. Traders should monitor official sources for the final statistics to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be significant catalysts, as would changes in weather forecasts that could impact passing game strategies. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or coaching decisions could also shift market sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking information about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities, causing fluctuations in the price of contracts within this market.