TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between New York and New England, with payouts scaling based on the number of receiving yards each player accumulates. The structure rewards higher yardage with progressively larger returns, creating a dynamic way to speculate on individual player outcomes.
Each market centers on a different player’s receiving yards in the specified game, with payouts determined by a tiered schedule that increases with every 10-yard increment. The payout formula applies a cubic scaling to the yardage, ensuring that higher yardage results in disproportionately larger returns, capped at $1.00 per Yes contract. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, effectively creating a inverse relationship. Negative yardage results in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. All markets resolve to Yes following the game, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remaining property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, but remember that each represents a different form of forecasting, and neither is guaranteed to be more accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders' beliefs about the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe a particular yardage range is probable, the price of contracts in that range will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the New York J versus New England game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics published by the NFL, and the contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders who correctly predicted the final receiving yardage range will receive a payout based on the contract's price at resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or quarterbacks on either team would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if a storm is predicted, could also influence the expected passing volume. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in traders' expectations and, consequently, move the prices within this market.