TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:18 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. The outcome depends on whether either quarterback achieves various passing yard thresholds during the full match, including overtime. The contracts include a protection clause for partial game participation.
All contracts in this event are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player records the required passing yards, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in at least one play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event uses full game passing yards including overtime. Each market resolves to Yes if the specified quarterback records the designated passing yard threshold during the game.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. Comparing the implied probabilities from both sources can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though it is important to remember they represent different things.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, indicating the market's expectation for the final outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price changes. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities, distinct from static odds offered by sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yardage statistics from the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics published by the NFL will be used to determine the winning contract. The market will settle to the value of 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual passing yards achieved, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor passing or running, could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also play a role. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' offensive capabilities could move this market.