TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:35 PM EST
Kalshi
Drake Maye’s passing touchdowns will be closely watched in the same New York J versus New England game. Multiple contracts hinge on whether he throws a certain number of touchdown passes, with varying thresholds that affect the resolution.
Similar to the previous event, these contracts are protected. If Maye participates in at least one play during the first half but none after, including overtime, the contract resolves to the fair price prior to kickoff unless he records the required passing touchdowns, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event uses full game passing touchdowns including overtime.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As a result, prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds are readily accessible and offer a convenient comparison point for evaluating the potential value in this market. It’s common to see discrepancies due to differing opinions and risk assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, the number of passing touchdowns. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the traders. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as the event draws nearer, offering a real-time assessment of potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the New York J versus New England game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the settlement of their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the market. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or play-calling tendencies, as revealed through press conferences or reports, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, even public perception and betting trends in traditional sportsbooks could indirectly affect trading activity in this market.