TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 2:44 PM EST
Kalshi
Drake Maye will aim to throw passing touchdowns when New York J faces New England. The number of touchdowns he achieves will settle multiple markets with varying thresholds.
All markets resolve based on whether Drake Maye records a specified number of passing touchdowns (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+, or 5+) in the New York J vs New England Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. If Maye is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once Maye takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on the passing touchdowns actually recorded during the game. All markets are independent but share these core resolution mechanics regarding player participation and touchdown thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public opinion strongly favors a particular outcome. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though this market represents a distinct view of potential results.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to news or events, and the current spread reflects the level of uncertainty surrounding the event.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the market’s settlement.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. News regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions unfavorable to passing, could also move the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or changes in team dynamics might also influence trader behavior. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams’ offensive capabilities could drive volume and price adjustments in this market.