TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:38 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of quarterback Drake Maye during a specific football game between New York J and New England. They focus on how many passing interceptions he throws during the match, with different thresholds determining the outcome.
The markets evaluate Drake Maye’s passing interceptions in the New York J vs New England game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different interception threshold (1+, 2+, or 3+). If Maye records the specified number of interceptions or more, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if Maye is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Maye takes at least one snap — even if the play is nullified by a penalty — the outcome is determined solely by the actual number of passing interceptions he records during the game. These rules ensure clarity in resolving outcomes based on actual performance, accounting for potential scenarios where a player may be present but not actively participating.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market represents what traders collectively believe will happen. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges or as traders refine their assessments of the game. Polls and analysts’ predictions can also provide a contrasting viewpoint to both sportsbook and prediction market probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a specific interception total, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market that accurately reflects the collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions thrown in the New York J vs New England game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will be used to determine the winning contract. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. This ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect passing game strategies. Unexpected reports about defensive schemes or player matchups could also shift trader sentiment. Even late-breaking news about team morale or coaching decisions could move the market. Any information that alters perceptions of the likelihood of interceptions will likely be reflected in the price movements of this market.