TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between two teams. The focus is on whether predetermined thresholds of pass attempts are met by the designated players during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by the named quarterback—Drake Maye or Geno Smith—in the New York J vs New England Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For each market, if the specified player records the exact number of passing attempts or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if a quarterback is active for the game but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual passing attempts recorded during the game. These provisions ensure clarity in scenarios where a backup or rotating quarterback may not see playing time, while maintaining final resolution based on in-game performance once any participation occurs.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks may initially emphasize public perception or biases, while this market aggregates diverse opinions as traders buy and sell contracts. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both sets of odds will adjust, but this market often converges toward a more accurate probability assessment as the event approaches. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early on, as this market dynamically responds to new information.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing attempt count for the game between New York J and New England is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics released by the NFL, which are widely considered the authoritative source for this type of data. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances on Kalshi following the official confirmation, allowing for a clear and transparent settlement of all contracts.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks’ health – injuries to key players or changes in their playing status – would be a major catalyst. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could impact passing strategies and therefore the number of attempts. Unexpected changes in coaching strategy or game plans could also shift expectations. Finally, late-breaking news about defensive matchups or personnel changes could all contribute to movement in this market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.