TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the second half of a football game between New York J and New England, specifically how many points the winning team will win by. The resolution depends solely on the point differential in the latter half of the match, including any overtime periods.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold: if New England wins by more than the stated margin, the respective 'New England wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if New York J wins by more than the stated margin, the corresponding 'New York J wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these outcomes. No markets resolve if the game is canceled, forfeited, or otherwise not completed as scheduled. All thresholds are inclusive of the stated point values; for example, a win by exactly 20.5 points would not trigger the market resolving to Yes for 'over 20.5 points' but would for 'over 19.5 points' if such a market existed.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals. If there's a significant difference, it could indicate that prediction market traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the event. It's worth noting that prediction markets allow you to take either side of the spread, unlike some sportsbooks with limitations.
On Kalshi, the NFL spread market is priced via a demand-and-supply mechanism. Traders actively buy and sell contracts that pay out depending on the final point spread. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This continuous auction process means the price of each outcome reflects the collective belief of all participants, constantly updating as new information emerges. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in a particular outcome, while price movements signal shifts in market sentiment. The current volume for this market is $119,846.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome determined by the official point spread of the second half of the game, as reported by the NFL. The result will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. The market will settle based on whether New England exceeds the spread of 10.5 points in the second half. The final outcome will be publicly available shortly after the game concludes, and all contracts will be settled accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. News regarding key player injuries for either New York J or New England would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest unfavorable conditions for passing or running, could also shift the odds. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any large-volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and cause price fluctuations.