TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team’s special teams unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game. It includes possibilities for either team's defensive/special teams unit or no touchdown being scored by them at all. The outcome depends purely on the first touchdown scored by a special teams unit from either side.
The event determines whether the New England Patriots' or New York Jets' special teams/defensive unit scores the first touchdown in the specified game, or if no such touchdown occurs. Each market corresponds to one of these three outcomes. If a team’s unit is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at its pre-game fair price. Once a snap occurs, resolution depends on whether that unit scores the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored by either unit throughout the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves as Yes, and all other markets resolve as No. Touchdowns resulting from offensive actions such as fake punts or field goals do not count toward these markets.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially in the long run. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes move faster to react to breaking news, such as an injury announcement. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as they are driven by different forces and cater to different types of bettors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each player, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s probability assessment of that player scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news, analysis, and overall sentiment about the game. The current price represents the cost to own a contract that pays out if that player scores first.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, following the conclusion of the New York J vs New England game. The outcome will be determined by identifying the player who scores the first touchdown in the game, as verified against credible public reporting. The official game statistics will serve as the source of truth for determining the winning contract. Any scoring plays subject to review will be settled based on the final ruling made by the relevant league officials.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, such as the prediction of heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the market, as they affect passing and running game strategies. Late-breaking news about team formations or play-calling tendencies could also move the market. Finally, any significant public betting patterns or analysis released by prominent sports analysts could also drive price changes.