TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points are scored in the first quarter of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market has a different threshold for the total points that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered a success. Only points scored during the first quarter count toward these outcomes.
These markets evaluate whether the combined score of both teams in the first quarter of the specified football game exceeds various point thresholds. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold value, and the outcome is determined solely by the total points scored during the first quarter of play. If the combined score surpasses the threshold defined in a given market, that market resolves as 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves as 'No'. All markets share the same secondary rule, which specifies that only points scored in the first quarter count toward the resolution. The markets are independent, with each threshold representing a distinct condition for resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to attract balanced betting and build a profit margin, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as more traders participate. However, both represent probabilities of the same underlying event, and discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible point totals for the first quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher first-quarter total, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total points scored in the first quarter of the New York J versus New England game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official scoring data from the game will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual first-quarter total will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their stake. It’s important to monitor the game and official results to understand the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the New York J or New England would likely cause a shift in the market, as would changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or high winds. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team formations could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and move the price, reflecting a change in collective sentiment among traders.