TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming football game between New York and Chicago. Participants can bet on whether each player will reach certain reception thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the named player, up to a maximum payout of $1.00, effectively capping measurable receptions at 20. The No contracts pay the remainder, ensuring the total payout for any position always equals $1.00. Payouts are directly proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger holdings receive correspondingly larger shares of the total payout. For instance, if a player records eight receptions, Yes contracts pay $0.40 and No contracts pay $0.60; eleven receptions would adjust this to Yes paying $0.55 and No paying $0.45, while zero receptions result in Yes paying nothing and No paying the full $1.00. All markets are independent, resolving solely based on the specified player's performance in the designated game.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks may set lines to attract action on both sides, while this market aims for a more accurate probability assessment based on traders' willingness to buy or sell. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Comparing these odds can offer valuable insights into where the public and informed traders diverge in their expectations for the outcome of the game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the players involved will be sourced from official NFL game statistics. The market will settle based on the official, verified reception counts, as recorded by the league. It’s important to note that any in-game adjustments or subsequent revisions to official statistics will be reflected in the final resolution of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the game progresses.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or weather conditions could shift expectations and influence trading activity. Unexpected starting lineup announcements, particularly concerning key receivers, would likely cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, analysis from sports analysts and updated player projections could also sway market sentiment. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the latest developments will be crucial for making informed trading decisions in this market.