TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in an upcoming football game, with payouts scaling based on performance thresholds. Participants can bet on whether each player will meet specific reception milestones, with returns increasing as the number of receptions rises. The structure incentivizes predictions about both star players and depth chart contributors.
This event comprises multiple parallel scalar markets focused on individual player performances in the same football game. Each market features a Yes outcome that pays out according to a non-linear schedule based on the player's total receptions, calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s represents official receptions. The payout schedule increases progressively, with maximum payout capped at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. Each No outcome pays $1.00 minus the corresponding Yes payout. All markets resolve independently based on official game statistics, with identical calculation mechanics applied uniformly across all participating players.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management into their lines, while this market aggregates the individual beliefs of many traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. Examining both can offer a more comprehensive view of expected outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the New York and Chicago players are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official statistics released following the completion of the game. The market will determine which side of the reception total escalator is correct based on the official game data. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the New York vs Chicago receptions market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be significant, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect passing game strategies. Unexpected starting quarterback changes or shifts in offensive play-calling could also cause movement. News regarding defensive matchups – for example, a shutdown corner being assigned to a star receiver – could also impact trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market. Any late-breaking news related to player availability or game plans is likely to be reflected in trading activity.