TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of individual players in a specific football game, focusing on how many receiving yards each player accumulates. Participants can bet on whether a player will meet or exceed certain yardage thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for nuanced predictions about player performance in a head-to-head matchup.
These markets resolve based on the receiving yards accumulated by specified New York Jets and Chicago players during their game scheduled for October 4, 2026. For each player market, Yes contracts pay $0.0025 per receiving yard recorded, up to a maximum payout of $1.00, which corresponds to a cap of 400 yards. The No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are scalar and proportional to the holder's position size, meaning they scale linearly with the number of yards achieved. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, the Yes payout would be $0.20 and the No payout $0.80; at 200 yards, both payouts equal $0.50. If a player records zero yards, the Yes payout is $0.00 and the No payout is $1.00. All markets are independent, and each resolves solely based on the corresponding player’s performance in that specific game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The current pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the relevant players are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yard totals, as reported by the NFL's official data sources, will determine which contracts settle positively. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual receiving yardage ranges will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The market's resolution is based on official data, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as the absence of key receivers would dramatically alter the expected yardage distribution. Unexpected changes in team strategy, such as a shift towards a more pass-heavy offense, could also move the market. Weather conditions on game day, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, can affect passing game performance. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could influence traders' expectations and lead to price adjustments in this market.