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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:20 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to speculate on the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between New York J and Chicago. The payouts are determined by the number of receiving yards each player accumulates during the match, with higher yardage leading to increased returns for 'Yes' contracts. 'No' contracts compensate based on the difference from the maximum payout.
Each market evaluates player performance in the New York J vs Chicago Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. For any given player, 'Yes' contracts pay out according to a tiered schedule based on receiving yards accumulated in multiples of ten, with payouts increasing progressively up to a maximum of $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The exact payout is calculated using the formula: Payout Formula = floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y = min(200, max(0, 10 x floor(s / 10))) and s represents the official receiving yards. 'No' contracts pay $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, ensuring that the total return for both positions sums to $1.00, except when negative yards are recorded, in which case 'Yes' pays $0.00. The markets resolve to 'Yes' if the specified conditions are met, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis that may not be immediately priced into traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. You may find that this market’s implied probabilities differ from those offered by sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly closer to the event date, as traders react to late-breaking news.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts at prices they deem fair. The price of a contract represents the probability of the event occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available contracts at different price points, giving you an idea of the liquidity and potential price impact of larger trades. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, incorporating new information and attempting to profit from perceived mispricings.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yards totals for the players in the specified game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards will be sourced from official NFL statistics and will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objectively verifiable data, ensuring a fair and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as the absence of a key receiver would drastically alter expectations. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could affect passing games and, consequently, receiving yardage. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategy could also move the market. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could influence traders' assessments of potential receiving yardage totals, leading to price fluctuations in this market.