TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specified athletes or units achieve certain fantasy point thresholds. The outcomes depend on detailed statistical contributions, including offensive plays, defensive actions, and special teams plays, all measured against predefined benchmarks.
These markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by individual players and team defense/special teams units in the specified football game, using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system. For any player or D/ST market, if the designated participant records more fantasy points than the stated threshold during the full game—including overtime—the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Players or units that do not participate, or who are not assigned a fantasy-point value by Sleeper, are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point total published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration is used for resolution, with no rounding applied and no adjustments for post-expiration corrections. The scoring system awards points for various in-game activities: passing, rushing, and receiving yards and touchdowns; interceptions, two-point conversions, and fumbles; kicking field goals and extra points; and defensive/special teams actions such as touchdowns, sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, safeties, and blocked kicks. Additionally, defensive/special teams units receive points based on the number of points they allow in the game. All markets are independent, and each resolves solely based on the corresponding participant’s performance against their specific threshold.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As a result, you may find that the implied probabilities in this market diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, particularly as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Polls and analysts’ predictions can also differ, as they represent individual assessments rather than a collective forecast. This market provides a unique perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the likelihood of a particular outcome, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total fantasy points scored by each team in the New York vs Chicago game will be tallied from official sources, and the team with the higher score determines the outcome of this market. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released after the game concludes, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions accordingly.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or weather forecasts could all significantly impact the perceived likelihood of either team scoring more fantasy points. Unexpected performance from key players in recent games or shifts in coaching strategies could also move the market. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can play a role in shaping trader expectations and driving price fluctuations. Any developments that alter the anticipated game dynamics have the potential to shift the odds.