TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 3:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which player or team unit will score the first touchdown for the New York J in their upcoming game against Chicago. Each market corresponds to a specific potential scorer, with outcomes determined by in-game performance.
These markets determine whether specified New York J players or units score the first touchdown in the game against Chicago. Each market resolves to Yes if the designated player or unit scores the opening touchdown for New York J. If a participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at its pre-game fair market price. Once a participant takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by penalty—the market resolves based on whether they score the first touchdown. If no New York J touchdowns occur in the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all other player and unit markets resolve to No. All markets are independent, and only one can resolve to Yes, corresponding to whoever scores the first New York J touchdown, or none if no touchdowns are scored by New York J.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, often incorporating information not immediately available to traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professionals, this market allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs about the likelihood of the New York J scoring the first touchdown. Differences can emerge due to varying levels of information, analytical approaches, and biases. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or shifts in public sentiment than sportsbooks, though the eventual outcomes often converge as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of the New York J scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a 0% to 100% chance of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, indicating growing confidence in the outcome. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants and provides a real-time assessment of the event’s probability.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the New York J’s offensive players, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, as adverse conditions could affect the team’s offensive strategy, could also move the market. Furthermore, any shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams’ relative strengths and weaknesses could influence trading activity and, consequently, the price. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also be catalysts for price movement.