TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:57 PM EST
Kalshi
Braelon Allen must surpass a certain yardage in his longest rush during the Cleveland vs New York Jets game, with the market outcome depending on whether he can produce a notable running play beyond the specified yards.
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified player records a longest rush exceeding the stated yardage threshold in the designated game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a player takes at least one snap, the market outcome is determined by whether their longest rush meets or exceeds the threshold, even if the snap is nullified by a penalty. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league. Multiple markets are evaluated for resolution based on the same criteria, with each player's performance independently assessed against their respective thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges closer to the event. However, as the event approaches, the prices on Kalshi often converge with sportsbook odds, as both attempt to accurately reflect the probability of each outcome. Examining these differences can reveal insights into public perception versus expert analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The official NFL game statistics will be used to verify the result. Traders holding contracts for the player with the longest reception will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for other players will not. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers are a primary driver, as the absence of a top player would shift probabilities. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds, could also affect passing games and therefore the likelihood of long receptions. News regarding player matchups – for example, a star receiver facing a weaker cornerback – could also cause price movements. Finally, any late-breaking information about player health or game strategy could influence trading activity on Kalshi.