TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:58 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of Jameis Winston as the quarterback for the New York Giants in an upcoming game against Washington. The outcome depends on how many passing touchdowns he throws during the match. Each market has a different threshold for the number of touchdowns required for a positive result.
The official rules for these markets collectively govern the resolution based on Jameis Winston's passing touchdown performance in the specified game. Each market corresponds to a different minimum threshold of passing touchdowns (1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if Winston meets or exceeds that threshold. A key secondary rule applies uniformly across all markets: if Winston is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Winston takes at least one snap—regardless of whether any play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly based on the actual number of passing touchdowns he records during the game. These provisions ensure clarity in cases where a player is present but does not participate in offensive plays, and they confirm that the resolution hinges solely on in-game performance once playing time begins.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it might indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular event. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information becomes available and influences traders' perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and changing opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe an outcome is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the game between New York G and Washington is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the market will settle to reflect the actual number of passing touchdowns achieved during the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor passing or running offenses, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might lead traders to adjust their predictions. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could also contribute to shifts in the market.