TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This market allows participants to bet on the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between New York and Houston. The payout varies based on the total rushing yards each player accumulates during the game, offering a dynamic way to engage with player statistics.
Contracts in this market pay out based on the rushing yards achieved by designated players in the specified football game. Each 'Yes' contract pays $0.0025 for every rushing yard recorded by the relevant player, capped at $1.00, which corresponds to a maximum of 400 yards. The 'No' contract pays the remainder, calculated as $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout. Payouts are proportional to the contract holder's position size and are constrained between $0.00 and $1.00. For instance, if a player rushes for 80 yards, 'Yes' contracts pay $0.20 and 'No' contracts pay $0.80; at 200 yards, both pay $0.50 each; and if the player records zero yards, 'Yes' pays $0.00 and 'No' pays $1.00. The market operates independently of official NFL affiliations, using trademarks under license.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or attempt to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both sets of odds will adjust, but the speed and magnitude of those adjustments can vary. It's common to see this market move more efficiently in response to new data than traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage levels. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on their own analysis and expectations, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at each price point, indicates the level of interest and liquidity for each outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage totals for the players in the New York G versus Houston game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yardage totals, as recorded by the NFL’s official statistics, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the completion of the game and official data release.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, potentially shifting expectations for their yardage totals. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if rain or snow is predicted, could also influence the game plan and affect rushing attempts. Additionally, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or coaching decisions could lead to adjustments in market prices. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in betting trends, could also move this market.