TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between New York G and Houston, focusing on how many rushing yards each player accumulates during the match. The payout structure rewards higher rushing yard totals with progressively larger returns for Yes contracts, while No contracts compensate based on the difference from the maximum payout.
The event evaluates two separate player performances in the same football game, using identical payout structures for each. For each player market, Yes contracts pay according to a tiered schedule based on rushing yards achieved in multiples of ten, with payouts calculated using a cubic function scaled to a maximum of $1.00. The formula ensures that payouts increase non-linearly with yardage, rewarding higher performance more significantly. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, ensuring that total returns for both sides sum to $1.00 unless the Yes payout reaches its maximum. Negative rushing yards result in zero payout for Yes contracts. Both markets resolve to Yes upon completion of the game, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different rushing yardage totals. If a significant discrepancy exists, it might indicate that the market perceives information differently than sportsbooks, or that there's an arbitrage opportunity for informed traders. It's common to see the market odds converge closer to the event time as more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible rushing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded, and incorrect predictions can lead to losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final rushing yardage totals for the New York G and Houston game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will serve as the basis for determining the winning contract. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the official statistics are released. It's important to monitor the event closely as it approaches to understand how the market is reacting to any late-breaking news or developments.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as it would directly affect their expected rushing yardage. Changes in weather conditions, particularly forecasts for rain or snow, could also influence the market, as inclement weather often leads to a more run-heavy offensive approach. Finally, any strategic adjustments announced by the coaching staffs, such as a shift in play-calling philosophy, could also move the market as traders adjust their expectations.