TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions by specific players in an upcoming football game between New York and Houston. Participants can bet on whether each player will achieve a certain level of performance, with payouts scaling based on actual reception counts.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the specified player, up to a maximum of $1.00, corresponding to a cap of 20 receptions. The No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size and adjust dynamically based on the actual number of receptions. For instance, if a player records eight receptions, Yes contracts pay $0.40 and No contracts pay $0.60; eleven receptions result in Yes paying $0.55 and No paying $0.45, while zero receptions yield $0.00 for Yes and $1.00 for No. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific markets in the event, ensuring consistent payout structures and caps for each participant.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may be influenced by factors like public betting patterns or risk management. This market, however, allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives of each type of market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading it. The current market depth and order flow can be viewed directly on the Kalshi interface, providing insight into market sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics for receptions in the New York G versus Houston game will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the final, official statistics released by the NFL and will be publicly available. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the outcome is officially verified.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Injury reports for key players on either the New York G or Houston teams would be a significant catalyst. Any news regarding changes in team strategy or player roles could also shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions on game day might also impact the number of passing attempts and, consequently, receptions. Finally, general news and analysis surrounding the teams' performance and matchup could all contribute to changes in the market’s pricing as traders react to new information.