TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific players during a football game between New York G and Houston. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase progressively with each reception, following a cubic scaling formula, while 'No' contracts compensate inversely based on the 'Yes' payout.
Each market operates as a scalar payout structure where 'Yes' contracts pay according to the number of receptions a designated player achieves during the specified game, calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, with s representing the official receptions. Payouts range from $0.0000 for zero receptions up to $1.0000 for 14 or more receptions. 'No' contracts pay $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, ensuring the total payout for both sides sums to $1.00. The markets resolve to 'Yes' if the player meets or exceeds the reception threshold defined by their respective payout schedule. All markets are independent, with each player's performance evaluated separately, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the diverse perspectives of traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments as new data emerges. It’s common to see prediction markets move closer to the eventual outcome as the event approaches, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than traditional betting odds. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by promotional offers and public betting patterns.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all traders on Kalshi regarding the final number of receptions in the New York vs Houston game.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of receptions achieved by players on both the New York and Houston teams will be used to determine the winning contracts. Official game statistics from a recognized sports data provider will serve as the source of truth for settlement. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key receivers on either the New York or Houston teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing game, could also shift the market. Additionally, updates on team strategies or quarterback performance, as well as any late-breaking news regarding player availability, have the potential to move the price of contracts in this market. Unexpected shifts in public perception could also play a role.