TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific player in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether he achieves various incremental receiving yard thresholds. The outcome depends entirely on the player's actual statistics during the full game, including any overtime periods.
All markets are contingent on Nico Collins achieving specified receiving yard thresholds (from 30+ to 150+) in the full game, including overtime. Each contract is designated as protected: if Collins participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless he meets the yardage requirement, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If he participates in any play after halftime, all contracts settle based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance their risk, while this market's pricing is driven by actual trading activity. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of that outcome will rise in this market. Conversely, if traders disagree with sportsbook pricing, the price will fall. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific yardage range being achieved. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly. The current market price represents the collective assessment of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the New York G versus Houston game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for each team will be sourced from official NFL statistics and used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle to the contract closest to the final receiving yardage total, as defined by Kalshi’s market rules. Traders will then receive their payouts based on the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly shift the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or quarterbacks on either team would have a substantial impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions for passing, could also move the market. Unexpected news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also influence trading activity. Finally, as the game draws closer, any updates on player availability or performance expectations will likely cause fluctuations in this market’s pricing.