TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:28 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between New York G and Houston. The outcome depends on whether the designated player achieves various passing yard thresholds during the full game, including overtime.
All markets resolve based on whether the named player achieves specified passing yard thresholds in the full game, including overtime. Each contract is designated as protected: if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player meets the yardage requirement, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome of the game, or that one venue has incorporated information the other hasn't. It's often useful to compare the implied probabilities to see where the market diverges from conventional wisdom.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own predictions, which drives price discovery. The more a particular outcome is traded, the more liquid and accurate its price becomes, providing a real-time estimate of the potential passing yardage total.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yardage totals from the New York G versus Houston game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics released by the NFL will be used to determine the winning contracts. The market will then pay out based on which contracts correspond to the actual passing yardage achieved during the game, allowing traders to realize their gains or losses based on their predictions.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected passing yardage. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategies could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information entering the market and cause prices to adjust accordingly.