TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:37 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the number of passing touchdowns achieved by C.J. Stroud in an upcoming football game between New York G and Houston. Each market has a different threshold for the number of touchdowns required for resolution, ranging from one to five or more touchdowns.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if C.J. Stroud participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price set prior to the game's kickoff, unless he meets or exceeds the required number of passing touchdowns. If Stroud participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics, regardless of his first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full-game passing touchdowns, including any overtime periods. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by supply and demand – what participants believe the true probability of an outcome is. As such, the odds here can sometimes be more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It’s common to see discrepancies between this market and sportsbook lines, reflecting differing opinions and information access.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders submit bids (what they’re willing to buy for) and asks (what they’re willing to sell for). The current price reflects the midpoint between the best bid and ask. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the perceived probability of different outcomes. The market’s depth – the volume of bids and asks at various price levels – indicates the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the game between New York G and Houston will be used to determine the winning outcome. It is important to note that the official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data provider, will be the definitive source for resolution. Any disputes or ambiguities will be addressed based on these official records.
Several factors could influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts – particularly if strong winds or heavy rain are predicted – could also impact the expected number of passing touchdowns. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about team strategies or defensive adjustments could shift trader sentiment. Even public perception, as reflected in media coverage and social media discussions, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.