TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of quarterback C.J. Stroud in a specific football game between New York and Houston. Each market evaluates whether Stroud achieves a minimum number of passing touchdowns during the match, offering different thresholds for success.
These markets assess C.J. Stroud's passing touchdown performance in the New York G vs Houston Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026, with varying thresholds from 1 to 5+ touchdowns. A market resolves to 'Yes' if Stroud records the specified number of passing touchdowns or more in the game. If Stroud is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once Stroud takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on the actual passing touchdowns he records during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets in this event, ensuring consistent evaluation of Stroud's performance under the defined conditions.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making, though they represent distinct approaches to forecasting the outcome of events.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, reflecting the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of passing touchdowns scored in the game will be verified against official game statistics. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the outcome, based on the final contract prices at resolution. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts could also play a role. Finally, as the game approaches, any public statements from players or coaches about their offensive strategies could influence trader behavior and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.