TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific quarterback in an upcoming football game, focusing on how often his passes are intercepted by the opposing team. The outcome depends on whether the quarterback throws a certain number of interceptions during the game. These markets allow participants to speculate on the defensive pressure the quarterback might face.
The event evaluates whether C.J. Stroud throws a specified minimum number of passing interceptions in the New York Giants versus Houston Texans game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+). If Stroud is active for the game but does not take any snaps, all markets settle to their fair market price determined before the game begins. Once Stroud takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the markets resolve strictly based on the total number of interceptions he records during the game. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply how each assesses probabilities. If you find significant differences between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate an opportunity for value, depending on your own assessment of the game and the teams involved.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the number of passing interceptions. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that specific outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the game approaches.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions in the New York G versus Houston game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the market will settle to reflect the actual number of interceptions thrown during the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct number of interceptions will receive a payout, while those holding contracts predicting a different outcome will not.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the game. News regarding the quarterbacks' health, such as an injury report, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions favoring passing or hindering it, could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about defensive strategies or key player matchups could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could influence trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.