TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:26 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to bet on the performance of individual players in an upcoming football game between New York G and Houston. Payouts are determined by each player's fantasy points scored, with specific calculations applied to distribute winnings based on performance metrics.
Each market operates as a scalar betting system where Yes contracts pay proportionally to the player's fantasy points scored in the specified game, calculated at $0.01 per PPR fantasy point. Payouts are rounded to the nearest cent, with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. The No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. If a player does not receive a fantasy-point total from Sleeper for the week, they are considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts and $1.00 for No contracts. All payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger payouts based on the same rate. The structure ensures that total payouts for any contract never exceed $1.00, distributing risk and reward based on predicted player performance.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks often set lines to encourage balanced betting, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can offer a more comprehensive view of the anticipated result, and potentially identify opportunities based on differing valuations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices converge to represent a collective prediction. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final statistical results of the New York vs Houston matchup as reported by official sources. The platform will verify the results against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not. It’s important to monitor official announcements as the event concludes to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or unexpected performance in preceding games could significantly shift trader sentiment. Major announcements about coaching changes or key player availability would also likely cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, public opinion shifts, reflected in polls or expert analyses, can also impact trading activity. Monitoring these signals and events is crucial for understanding potential market movements and making informed trading decisions.