TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the final quarter performance of a professional football game between two teams, evaluating whether the outcome is decided by specific point margins. Only points scored in the last quarter count, making it a test of late-game dominance and strategy.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the 4th quarter of the New York G vs Houston Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a different threshold for the winning team’s point margin: Houston must win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or New York G must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points for the respective 'Yes' outcome. Only points scored during regulation play in the 4th quarter are considered; any points from overtime do not affect the resolution. The markets are independent, with each representing a distinct point spread requirement for either team’s victory in the final quarter.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome of the game. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms and can fluctuate independently.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 4th quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay or receive for a contract that pays out if the actual spread falls within the specified range.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the 4th quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the New York vs Houston game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will determine which contracts payout based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by each contract. All trading will cease once the outcome is officially determined and reported.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the New York or Houston teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategy, weather forecasts, or even public sentiment driven by expert analysis could also impact trading activity. Unexpected line movements in sportsbooks could also prompt traders to adjust their positions in this market. Monitoring these signals can provide insight into potential shifts in the perceived probability of different outcomes.