TOTAL VOLUME:
$155.3b
24H VOL:
$358,270,487
24H TRANSACTIONS:
3,002,125,488
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,041,693,191
423,163
Markets across
39,982
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,387
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific player performance thresholds in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether certain athletes achieve designated receiving yard milestones. The outcomes are determined by actual game statistics, with adjustments made for player participation status in the first half. The event is designed to offer protected contracts that mitigate risk for non-participation in the second half.
All markets are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but not in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the specified receiving yard threshold. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by a penalty before the snap does not count toward participation. Players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime performance.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the likely outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may initially be more influenced by expert opinions, this market often incorporates a broader range of perspectives, potentially leading to more accurate predictions over time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential receiving yardage totals. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. The current price indicates the cost to purchase a contract that pays out if the actual receiving yards fall within the contract's range.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the New Orleans vs New York game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for the game, as reported by official sources, will determine which contracts payout. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual receiving yards achieved, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders should monitor official sources after the game concludes to understand the final outcome and settlement details.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or the opposing team’s defensive strategies could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that might favor passing or running plays, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news about quarterback performance or coaching decisions could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a shift in sentiment, potentially driving price movements.