TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the receiving yard performance of individual players in a specific football game between New Orleans and New York. Each market focuses on a different player, allowing participants to speculate on how many receiving yards each player will accumulate during the match.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay a variable amount based on the receiving yards achieved by the specified player, with a fixed rate of $0.0025 per yard. The maximum payout for any Yes contract is capped at $1.00, corresponding to a maximum of 400 receiving yards. No contracts pay the remainder of the $1.00 not paid out to Yes contracts, ensuring the total payout per contract remains $1.00 regardless of outcome. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger shares of the total payout. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, the Yes payout would be $0.20 and the No payout $0.80; if the player records 200 yards, both Yes and No would pay $0.50. If the player records zero yards, the No contract pays the full $1.00 while the Yes contract pays nothing. All markets resolve based solely on the official receiving yard statistics recorded during the game, with no additional conditions or external factors influencing the outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Polls and analysts' predictions often fall between the sportsbook and prediction market prices, but this market provides a unique, real-money perspective on the likely outcome of the New Orleans versus New York game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting traders’ beliefs about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to incorporate this collective intelligence. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and accurate forecast of the final receiving yardage totals for the game.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the New Orleans versus New York game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yardage totals for each player will be used to determine which contracts payout, based on the ladder structure of the market. The official NFL statistics will serve as the definitive source for determining the winning outcomes in this market, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or the opposing team’s defensive strategies would likely cause price movements. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected passing volume and therefore the receiving yardage totals. Unexpected shifts in quarterback performance or coaching decisions during the game itself could also lead to substantial changes in the market prices as traders react to the unfolding events.