TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players will achieve a longest reception exceeding defined yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market focuses on a different player's performance, evaluating if they record the longest pass reception of the match beyond their individual threshold.
The event evaluates multiple individual player markets to determine if any listed player records the longest reception in the specified football game beyond their respective yardage thresholds. Each market corresponds to a unique player and threshold, resolving to Yes if that player’s longest reception exceeds their set value. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual longest reception recorded during the game. All markets operate independently, with resolution contingent solely on the player’s performance relative to their individual threshold, irrespective of other players’ outcomes. The governing league’s official statistics will determine the longest reception, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from many participants. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, particularly as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds may be influenced by factors like marketing promotions or risk management, causing discrepancies with this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each player having the longest reception. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades depend on correctly assessing the likelihood of each player achieving the longest reception. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The official NFL game statistics will be used to verify the outcome, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Any ties will be handled according to the platform's established rules, which are available for review on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the prices in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected developments during practice sessions, such as a player demonstrating a new route-running ability, might also shift probabilities. Furthermore, any significant media coverage or expert analysis focusing on specific players’ potential for long receptions could cause movement in this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding price fluctuations.