TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:35 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the number of passing touchdowns achieved by specific quarterbacks during a football game between New Orleans and New York. The outcomes depend on whether the designated player meets or exceeds certain touchdown thresholds throughout the match.
All contracts in this event are designated as protected, meaning they incorporate specific participant clauses to handle scenarios where a player’s involvement is limited. If a player takes part in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after halftime—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game’s kickoff, unless the player achieves the required number of passing touchdowns, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Notably, injury, injury designation, or being ruled out is not required for protection to apply. Additionally, participation in a play that is nullified by a penalty does not count toward participation, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above-or-at-least payout criterion, and this event considers all passing touchdowns scored during the entire game, including overtime periods.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a certain outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price of that outcome will move accordingly. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional sportsbooks in terms of accuracy, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These prices are determined solely by supply and demand within the Kalshi exchange; no external factors directly influence the pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the New Orleans versus New York game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics as reported by the NFL. The market will determine which outcome – the number of passing touchdowns – has the highest probability based on trading activity up to the point of resolution. No further trading will be permitted once the event concludes and the outcome is confirmed.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts could also play a role. Furthermore, any public statements from players or coaches about their offensive game plan might influence traders' expectations and, consequently, the prices within this market.