TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain athletes or units surpass predetermined fantasy point thresholds. The outcomes depend on detailed statistical contributions, including offensive plays, defensive achievements, and special teams efforts, all measured against standardized scoring rules.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense/special teams units in the full Pro Football game between New Orleans and New York G originally scheduled for October 18, 2026, including any overtime periods. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions as detailed in the scoring format. Players who do not participate or are not assigned a fantasy-point value by Sleeper are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no adjustments for post-expiration corrections or rounding. Each market individually checks whether the named player or unit exceeds their specific fantasy point threshold to determine a "Yes" or "No" outcome.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, aiming to profit regardless of the outcome. This market, however, represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the result. As such, the odds here may differ from sportsbook lines, potentially offering a more refined estimate of the true probability. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available and market participants adjust their views.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the potential total fantasy points scored, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts anticipating a higher score, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market’s consensus expectation for the outcome. The closer we get to the game, the more the price should converge towards the actual total fantasy points, as uncertainty decreases and information solidifies.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total fantasy points scored by players from both the New Orleans and New York teams will be used to determine the result. This will be based on standard fantasy scoring rules, as defined by major fantasy sports platforms. The final price of the market will reflect the actual total fantasy points achieved, allowing traders to realize their gains or losses based on their predictions.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes in team lineups would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected weather conditions that might affect player performance could also move the market. Additionally, updates on player form, coaching strategies, or even pre-game analysis from reputable sources could all contribute to price fluctuations. As the game approaches, even minor developments can be amplified by traders seeking an edge.