TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either New Orleans or New York G in the second half of their football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered a win.
The markets resolve based on the point differential by which either New Orleans or New York G wins the second half (including overtime) of the designated football game. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin: New Orleans must win by more than 10.5, 9.5, 7.5, 6.5, 4.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, while New York G must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 6.5, 7.5, 9.5, or 10.5 points. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these thresholds. If the game is postponed or canceled without a makeup date being announced, all markets are declared void.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and specialized knowledge. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of informed traders. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges or as public perception changes. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into where discrepancies exist and potentially identify advantageous trading opportunities, though sportsbooks and this market serve different purposes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the New Orleans vs New York spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that particular spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more traders believe the spread will be a certain value, they will buy contracts at that price, driving it up. Conversely, if traders believe it's unlikely, they will sell, lowering the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the second half of the New Orleans vs New York game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The final score will determine the winning and losing contracts in this market.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to Oct 18, 2026. News regarding player injuries to key players on either the New Orleans or New York teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected team performance in preceding games could also shift trader sentiment. Even broader factors, such as weather conditions expected during the game, or public perception shifts based on analyst predictions, can all contribute to fluctuations in the price of contracts within this market. Any information impacting the perceived likelihood of a specific spread is likely to be reflected in trading activity.