TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 6:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the potential point differential in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, enabling a range of betting options based on expected performance.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the New Mexico vs San Jose St. college football game scheduled for Oct 31, 2026. If New Mexico wins by the exact margin specified in a market’s primary rule, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Separate markets exist for New Mexico winning by various margins from over 1.5 to over 35.5 points, and for San Jose St. winning by margins from over 1.5 to over 10.5 points. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of timing changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly before a significant amount of trading occurs. These differences can stem from varying levels of information or differing interpretations of available data, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result of the game. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of the likely outcome as perceived by those trading it.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the final, official point spread of the New Mexico vs San Jose State football game as determined by official sports data providers. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value, based on the final spread.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the New Mexico or San Jose State teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions, as well as significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks, may also cause movement in this market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.