TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 5:21 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate different thresholds of points scored by both teams combined in the first half of a college football game. Each threshold represents a specific point total that, if exceeded, determines the outcome of that particular market.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both teams during the first half of the New Mexico vs San Jose State college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For each market, if the combined score exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 2.5 to 41.5 points), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Only points scored in the first half count. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs, potentially leading to different probabilities being assigned to various outcomes. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, as traders react to news and adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the event occurring. For example, a contract trading at 60 means there's a 60% implied probability of the total points scored in the first half being over the specified number. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with buyers driving the price up and sellers driving it down, reflecting the collective predictions of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total points scored in the first half of the New Mexico vs San Jose State game will be used to determine whether the 'over' or 'under' contract wins. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the conclusion of the first half. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout of 100 minus the commission.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the New Mexico or San Jose State teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact scoring, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as significant betting activity from informed traders, could also cause the price to fluctuate before the game begins and even during the first half.