TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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New Mexico vs. Hawai'i
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of New Mexico vs. Hawai'i?

Volume:
$5,232,549

New Mexico

 - Kalshi

New Mexico - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 18, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 2:04 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

New Mexico

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,481,687
N/A
N/A
$670,268
Settled
Yes
polymarket

New Mexico vs. Hawai'i

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$187,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -7.5

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$487
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
100%
22%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$333
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

New Mexico O/U 20.5

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -10.5

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -0.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hawai'i

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,437,576
N/A
N/A
$1,661,828
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 45.5

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83,119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 39.5

View
0%
65%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,719
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -14.5

View
0%
49%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -13.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,471
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 47.5

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 43.5

View
0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -12.5

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$491
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -24.5

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -11.5

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$391
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -27.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 51.5

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$350
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 230

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Hawai'i exceeding 0.5 total passing touchdowns in their upcoming college football game against New Mexico. Currently, the consensus probability across Polymarket and Kalshi is 100.0%. This aggregated view uses data from both platforms and will resolve based on data reported at https://www.ncaa.com/. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for October 17th, as the outcome of this market will be determined by the final statistics from that contest.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's 'win' market is a binary 'game happens' market, while Polymarket's markets resolve to the specific winning team or a 50/50 split in case of a tie.Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket for more precise bets on the game's outcome, especially regarding spreads and totals. Kalshi's win market is essentially a bet on whether the game will be completed.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either New Mexico or Hawai'i wins the game. Effectively a 'game happens' market.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'New Mexico' if New Mexico wins, 'Hawai'i' if Hawai'i wins. Resolves 50/50 in case of a tie. Markets remain open until the game is completed, or resolve 50/50 if canceled.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico and Hawai'i, scheduled for October 17 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game. This market will resolve to "Hawai'i" if Hawai'i win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins the game on the scheduled date. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled start, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a different kind of information than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the aggregated predictions of informed traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may be quicker to incorporate new information or reflect the views of sophisticated bettors. Generally, prediction markets are considered highly efficient and can provide a valuable alternative perspective on the likely outcome of an event.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity levels. Differences in these elements can lead to varying price discovery processes. Additionally, the volume traded on each platform – currently $5,232,549 overall – isn’t necessarily evenly distributed, potentially creating imbalances. It’s also possible that differing interpretations of available information or varying risk appetites among traders on each platform contribute to the observed price differences.

Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, coaching changes, or significant team performance updates would likely impact predictions. Unexpected weather conditions at the game location could also play a role. Furthermore, large-volume trades on either Polymarket or Kalshi could create short-term price movements. Monitoring these signals and events can help traders assess the evolving probabilities surrounding the New Mexico-Hawai'i football game.