TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether New Mexico State will win their college football game against Sam Houston by more than 1.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 75.0% probability to New Mexico State winning by over 1.5 points, with resolution determined by the outcome of the New Mexico St. vs Sam Houston game originally scheduled for Oct 21, 2026. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve based on the final score following the conclusion of play on October 21, 2026.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the New Mexico St. vs Sam Houston college football game scheduled for Oct 21, 2026. If New Mexico St. wins by exceeding the specified point margin, the corresponding 'New Mexico St. wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes; if Sam Houston wins by exceeding their specified margin, their respective market resolves to Yes. All other markets resolve to No. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve per the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. Often, you’ll find that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially closer to the event. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when there’s significant public interest or disagreement about the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants regarding the New Mexico St vs Sam Houston game.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official result of the New Mexico St vs Sam Houston game. The market will settle to 100 if the actual point spread falls within the range of contracts offered, and to 0 for any contracts outside that range. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the New Mexico St or Sam Houston teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they affect playing conditions, could also shift the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also cause price fluctuations. Finally, large trading volume from informed traders could signal new information or a shift in sentiment, leading to movement in the spread.