TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team will win the college football game between New Mexico State and Sam Houston. Currently, Kalshi gives New Mexico St. wins a 93.0% probability, while Sam Houston wins is at 6.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the New Mexico St. vs Sam Houston game, as reported by the official result of the match. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve to Yes if Sam Houston wins the originally scheduled game on Oct 21, 2026, with final resolution occurring by October 22, 2026.
The market resolves based on the winner of the New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston college football game scheduled for October 21, 2026. If New Mexico State wins, their corresponding market resolves to Yes, and Sam Houston’s resolves to No, and vice versa. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, both markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within the 48-hour window, both markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the NCAA, and all team trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own insights and information. As more people participate, the prices tend to become more accurate reflections of the true probabilities. It's common to see discrepancies, especially early on, as the market digests information and adjusts accordingly. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where buyers and sellers set the prices for contracts representing different outcomes. Traders purchase 'yes' contracts if they believe an outcome will occur and 'no' contracts if they believe it won't. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of its probability. As more contracts are bought or sold, the price adjusts, influencing the implied probability of the event. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the New Mexico St. vs Sam Houston game, as reported by a recognized sports data source. Traders holding winning contracts will be paid out according to the final market prices at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand how the final result will be determined and reflected in the market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected weather conditions could influence trader sentiment. Updates on team performance in preceding games, public analysis from sports experts, and even significant betting activity in sportsbooks can all impact trading volume and price movements. Shifts in public perception, fueled by media coverage or social media trends, could also drive changes in this market as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions.